Goal One: Why We Need Ambitious Climate Action Plans

With the creation of the Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries agreed to work together to tackle the climate crisis and limit global warming.  

It was an incredible achievement and a global statement of hope. The next step was turning hope into a plan. 

That’s why each country signing the Paris Agreement also committed to developing a climate action plan to do its part to meet the accord's goals. 

These plans are known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs, for short) and typically include: 

1. A goal for reducing or limiting greenhouse gas emissions. 
2. Other goals in areas like developing renewable energy or halting deforestation. 
3. A plan of action to meet those targets. 

Countries are supposed to submit new NDCs every five years. The idea here is that countries build on their progress each time and submit a more ambitious NDC every five years. This year (2025) is one of those submission years. Which makes the upcoming COP 30 talks in Brazil a really big deal. 

TIME TO RAISE THE STAKES 

What’s different about NDCs in 2025 is that for the first time, countries could see exactly how far the world has come in meeting Paris goals – and how far we have to go – before even putting pen to paper. 

This is down to the global stocktake, a five-year process with two key components. The first measures countries’ collective progress towards Paris goals, namely by reducing emissions. This is known as the “technical outcome.”  

The second part, known as the “political outcome,” is essentially a response to the technical outcome, with countries jointly committing to a set of new goals.   

In 2023, the first global stocktake wrapped at COP 28. The technical outcome assessing progress to date essentially boiled down to three words: “Not nearly enough.” In response, countries committed to several big goals to get the world back on track to Paris targets, including: 

1. Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. 
2. Tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. 
3. Doubling global energy efficiency progress by 2030.  

Fast forward to this year, and the plan was for countries to submit new NDCs detailing what they’ll actually do by 2035 to help meet these global goals. 

Needless to say, this is far from an abstract exercise. The decade since the world reached the Paris Agreement is the hottest decade on record. Emissions are still rising at a frightening rate and the alarming pace of warming has scientists more than a little freaked out.  

With the planet on track to cross the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree aspirational goal as soon as this decade, the conversation is increasingly about how to minimize peak warming and bring average temperatures back down below 1.5º as quickly as possible.  

All of which added real urgency to the NDC process and underscored the need for ambitious commitments to meet this moment. 

SO, HOW ARE WE LOOKING?  

In a nutshell, not great. 

As of late September and after a few deadlines have come and gone, only 60-something countries that together account for roughly half of global emissions had submitted new NDCs to the UN. 

With the US effectively out of the Paris Agreement picture, the big story was China, which committed to cut economy-wide emissions by 7–10% by 2035. The remarkably unambitious pledge by the planet’s largest polluter left many disappointed, but the nation’s history of under-promising and overdelivering in this area coupled with the lightspeed electrification happening throughout its economy offer some reason for hope. 

Outside of China, only one leading economy has come forward with an adequately rated NDC target – the United Kingdom – and it’s unclear whether its policy landscape matches its ambition. Many other submissions from major emitters and major fossil fuel exporters fall short.  

With the expectation that even when all NDCs come through, the commitments won’t be anywhere near enough to meet Paris targets, the question now is, what now? 

RAISING THE BAR AT COP 30 

The two-week pressure cooker that will be COP 30 is a chance to raise the bar and raise ambitions for real climate actions worldwide. We cannot let it slip away. 

There is precedent here. Previous COPs have called on nations to strengthen their NDCs, even in years when they weren’t due. 

Sensing the urgency of the moment, some countries have already come forward with that request for COP 30 – on top of requesting an annual space to review and amend progress. No such mandate exists within the Paris Agreement. But existential threats require flexibility. Plus, in a world where clean energy is increasingly the cheapest form of new electricity and increasingly available worldwide, countries can afford to act quickly and slash emissions faster and more deeply than any time in history. 

Seizing the moment and using COP 30 to push for stronger NDCs or early and overachievement of current NDCs will require strong diplomacy from Brazil, the COP 30 president. There’s no NDC-focused workstream currently on the COP 30 agenda, but there are other ways to get there. Most notably, negotiating a separate set of commitments and political signals known as a “cover decision”. 

 So far, Brazil has not committed to having a cover decision, but there is time to increase the pressure both on the COP president and attending nations.  

So what are we looking for? The headline is a package of outcomes that drives real ambition and stronger NDC action across the planet. The goal here is to make it easier for countries to meet NDC targets early and either overachieve them or increase their ambition. A good start on outcomes includes: 

• Clarity on supporting implementation of the global stocktake outcomes. 
• A strong just transition mechanism. 
• Clarity and adoption of the Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3 Trillion for climate finance.   

We’re also looking for a strong, transparent and accountable Action Agenda, which recognizes commitments from all actors – including non-state actors – to catalyze and coordinate action happening across the planet. Key areas here will be implementing existing initiatives and linking non-state action (think, businesses, civil society) to negotiations through the Marrakech Partnership – a framework for boosting connection between countries and other stakeholders. 

Big picture, the opportunity at COP 30 is to pair a formal call to strengthen policies and action within NDCs with new supportive structures, workstreams, and mechanisms to turn promises into progress.  

The world cannot wait five more years for the next round of NDCs to get truly serious about climate action. We need to call on Brazil to commit to a cover decision with a strong response to the NDC ambition gap.  

But NDCs are worth nothing if they aren’t implemented. That’s where we really come in. We need to keep fighting for climate action in our own countries and communities. A commitment is only as good as the efforts put forth to meet and exceed it. If we want a safe climate for our future and that of our families, we’ve got to make it a reality. 

Stay up to date with the latest on global climate efforts at COP summits and beyond by signing up for our digital advocate list today.