How the Climate Crisis is Impacting Mongolia
The effects of climate change in Mongolia are multifaceted and deeply intertwined.
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Mongolia, a vast, landlocked nation in Central Asia, is experiencing the impacts of the climate crisis at an alarming rate, significantly faster than the global average.
With temperatures rising at nearly three times the global rate—a 2.1-degree Celsius increase over the past 70 years, and potentially exceeding 5°C by the end of the century under high emissions scenarios—Mongolia is confronting a profound transformation of its environment, economy, and traditional way of life. The country's unique geography, characterized by arid steppes, deserts, and mountains, makes it particularly vulnerable to even slight shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns.
The effects of climate change in Mongolia are multifaceted and deeply intertwined, creating a vicious cycle that threatens the livelihoods of its nomadic herders, the stability of its ecosystems, and the well-being of its population.
Exacerbation of Dzuds
Perhaps the most devastating impact of climate change in Mongolia is the increased frequency and intensity of "dzuds." A dzud is a unique and brutal winter storm. These storms are characterized by five types, depending on snow, freezing, rain, extreme cold, and more, and can have disastrous impacts on people and animals.
Historically, dzuds occurred roughly every 10 years. However, due to climate change, they are now striking with alarming regularity, with six major dzuds in just the past decade. The winters of 2023-2024 were particularly severe, with widespread dzud conditions affecting 90% of the country.
Dzuds lead to mass livestock deaths. In 2010, a catastrophic dzud killed over 10 million animals, wiping out roughly 25% of the country's livestock and impacting about 769,000 people. More recently, in the 2023-2024 winter, about 8.1 million animals perished. These losses are devastating for the around a third of Mongolia's population that depends directly on livestock herding for their livelihood, food, and income.
The economic ripple effect of dzuds is profound. Livestock rearing contributes over 80% of Mongolia's agricultural output and roughly 13% of its GDP on average. Mass animal deaths lead to soaring prices for meat and dairy, essential staples in the Mongolian diet, affecting food security even for urban dwellers.
Desertification and Land Degradation
Rising temperatures and decreased precipitation (a 7% decline between 1940 and 2015) contribute significantly to desertification and land degradation across Mongolia. Over 77% of Mongolia's land is degraded, a process exacerbated by climate change.
Many herders are seeing a significant decline in rainfall, leading to less productive pastures.
The drying of soils and degradation of vegetation cover lead to more frequent and intense dust storms, particularly in the spring. These storms reduce air quality, affect human health, and further contribute to land erosion. Mongolia experienced its largest sandstorms in a decade in early 2021, impacting not only the country but also trans-regionally into East Asia.
A vicious cycle exists where soil moisture deficits lead to surface warming, resulting in a hotter and drier climate. This further degrades land and amplifies the effects of drought.
While climate change is a primary driver, the increased pressure on dwindling pastures due to an expanding livestock population (which has more than doubled in the last 30 years) also significantly contributes to desertification. Experts suggest that 49% of Mongolia's desertification is caused by overgrazing, alongside climate change.
Water Scarcity
The combination of higher temperatures and reduced precipitation leads to severe water scarcity across the country, affecting both human populations and livestock.
Many local rivers, springs, and streams are drying up, forcing herders to rely on shared wells. This often means traveling significant distances to access water for their animals, consuming an entire day for a round trip.
Water scarcity severely impacts rain-fed agriculture, particularly wheat production, threatening Mongolia's food security.
Over a quarter of lakes in the Mongolian Plateau dried up between 1987 and 2010, indicative of the widespread drying trend.
Impact on Human Health and Livelihoods
The environmental changes driven by climate change have direct and indirect consequences for the health and livelihoods of the Mongolian people.
The devastating losses from dzuds and the increasing difficulty of sustaining a nomadic herding lifestyle are pushing rural populations to migrate en masse to the cities like the capital, Ulaanbaatar. This phenomenon, known as "Ih Nuudel" (the big migration), has led to rapid urbanization, overcrowding, and the growth of informal settlements on the city's outskirts. These migrants often face new challenges, including lack of residency rights, limited access to public services, and poor living conditions.
While overall undernutrition is not a major issue, micronutrient deficiencies are high.
Climate change's impact on livestock and agriculture can lead to price spikes in essential foods, making healthy diets less accessible, especially for vulnerable populations.
As extreme cold during dzuds necessitates often burning coal indoors for heating, indoor air pollution intensifies, increasing the incidence of respiratory illnesses.
At the same time, the constant threat of losing livelihoods due to extreme weather events, coupled with the separation of children from caregivers as families struggle to save their herds, leads to significant psychological stress for herding communities.
Biodiversity Loss
Mongolia's unique ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the long-term warming and drying processes.
As temperatures rise and habitats change, species are forced to shift their ranges, potentially leading to a loss of biodiversity and ecosystem instability.
Climate change also contributes to conditions that increase the risk of wildfires and can lead to the loss of forest cover, further impacting local ecosystems and the species that depend on them.
Other Extreme Weather Events
Climate change is making weather patterns more erratic and extreme globally, making it incredibly challenging for Mongolian herders to plan and adapt.
Herders have noted that the emergence of new green grasses in spring, crucial for animals to regain strength after winter, is often delayed, prolonging the period of vulnerability for livestock.
Some regions have experienced unusually high temperatures in January, disrupting natural cycles and increasing unpredictability.
Besides dzuds, Mongolia faces an increased intensity of other climate-driven hazards, including heat waves, floods, and intense rainfall, which can lead to landslides and land erosion.
What You Can Do
The climate crisis is profoundly reshaping Mongolia, transforming its environment, threatening its traditional nomadic culture, and imposing significant economic and social costs. The country is a stark example of how a nation heavily reliant on its natural environment and traditional livelihoods can be exceptionally vulnerable to global warming.
Addressing these challenges requires not only national adaptation strategies, but also concerted global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and support vulnerable nations in building resilience.
Ready to learn more about how the climate crisis is impacting Mongolia – and what can be done to help.
Join the REALITY Tour in Ulaanbaatar this October for a Climate Reality Leadership Corps training.
At a training, you’ll gain the knowledge and network to fight for a more sustainable future – for Mongolia and the rest of the world.
