Why COP 31 Might Be the Weirdest COP in Years

The world’s pre-eminent conference on the existential crisis of climate change might be facing its own existential crisis.

This year, when the UN Environment Programme released its annual report on the emissions cuts necessary to limit warming to the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, there was a stark new message: We can’t. 

What the report makes clear is that more than a decade after nearly 200 countries promised to make their best effort to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, we’re on track to cross that threshold in the next few years. Best case scenario (i.e. with rapid and sustained emissions cuts currently not on the table or horizon), the world is locked into 1.7–1.8 degrees of warming by mid-century, with the potential for declining after.

Which all raises the question, what even is the point of this year’s COP 31 summit? There are few major challenges or ambitious goals on the agenda from co-host Türkiye. The world’s largest economy won’t be there. Few influential national leaders are making the trip. Eulogies for the climate movement are regular features in mainstream media. And with the world rocked by global energy and costs-of-living crises, climate is not at the top of most people’s priorities worldwide.

All of which, counterintuitively, maybe, combine to potentially make this year’s COP summit one of the most important conferences in years.

COP Is a Storytelling Conference

On top of two weeks of intense negotiations on every angle of climate policy, each year’s UN COP climate summit is in many ways a storytelling contest about the future of global energy. Can we keep burning fossil fuels in any quantity and still have a livable planet? Can we live without them? How quickly can we build out clean energy around the world?

The story matters. Especially because this year’s conference, COP 31 in Antalya, Türkiye comes at a uniquely weird moment. 

The pace of global warming is accelerating sharply and scientists are warning that we do not even understand all the ways the climate could zig and zag. Not that the consequences already unfolding – from the catastrophic flooding in Nepal to Europe’s disappearing rivers to the climate-driven inflation pushing the prices of seemingly everything in the US up, up, up – aren’t devastating enough.

And yet. Hardly any leading politician wants to talk about climate change. Countries  like Colombia and Chile that have historically led climate efforts have elected leaders with very different priorities. And trust in the governments and institutions so critical for global climate efforts is low worldwide.

But zoom out and this may actually be a cause for hope. Because the clean energy solutions critical to limiting warming also happen to be a big part of the answer to many of the issues people are talking about. Issues like skyrocketing costs, the global energy crisis, and exploding demand from AI and data centers.

What this COP can do is tell that story. Trade the poetry of grand statements of existential risk for the prose of how clean energy can deliver a better life for billions. 

Equally important, it’s got to tell the story of how we do it. Three elements in particular will be important here. 

Practical plans to replace fossil fuels with clean energy

War in the Middle East and “the biggest energy crisis in history” have made the dangers of fossil fuel dependence painfully clear for billions and pushed more and more countries to look to renewables.

Many of these same nations have also pledged to slash emissions as part of their national climate plans. Now it’s time to turn these commitments into roadmaps for how they’ll replace fossil fuels with clean energy all across their economies. Quickly winding down fossil fuel subsidies that distort the market and keep consumers trapped must be part of the plan. So too must a requirement to electrify their economies with renewables, as with COP 31 hosts Türkiye’s 35 x 35 goal to meet 35% of final global energy demand with electricity by 2035.

Reforming COP to accelerate progress 

In theory, COP rules requiring consensus from all 200 countries for decisions ensures everyone has a say. In practice, the rule enables a handful of petrostates to block progress for everyone. It’s how countries like Saudi Arabia have used global climate talks to effectively stall global efforts and protect profits that by one count, total $170,000 every minute.

At COP 31, we’re looking for progress on rules of procedure with an option for voting when consensus cannot be found and a conflict-of-interest policy to limit fossil fuel influence.   

Protecting science

By now, the fossil fuel industry’s decades-long campaign to discredit science and deny the reality of climate change to the public is pretty well-known.

What’s less well known is how the industry has also been quietly working to undermine science in UN climate discussions.. In practice, this has meant mentions of science disappearing from key documents, references to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target minimized or cut, and industry voices gaining key roles in shaping major climate reports

There’s no mystery about the industry’s motivation in doing whatever it takes to protect its bottom line here, regardless of the facts. Political leaders can downplay the threat, but science shows the pace of climate change is accelerating and surprising even researchers. And rapidly cutting emissions – aka replacing the industry’s core products with renewables – remains the primary lever humanity can pull to avert the worst climate impacts headed our way. 

The planet’s leading climate conference is a prime opportunity to remind the world of these fundamental truths. But COP 31 should go further and explicitly recognize science as the foundation for negotiations, creating guidelines for using sound, peer-reviewed research for all discussions. Just as important, COP 31 should use its media spotlight to bring the bad actors attacking science out from the shadows and call out the dangerous role of disinformation in the summit’s closing decision.  

Watch This Space

We’ll be on the ground at COP 31 to follow progress in negotiations and civil society actions to pressure negotiators. Follow us on Instagram and X for the latest from Antalya.